Jasons 2019 NFL picks Album through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told one of the Minnesota Vikings have been the fourth-best team in the NFL? Hey, dont look at us: Football Outsiders have Minnesota ranked No. 4 at DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 defense, No. 14 special teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins does not hold water. He is No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three areas better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of figures, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) may have some betting significance as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, these NFC North teams have been profitable thus far. We might get more value from thebelow now that the entire world has proceeded from 44 to as large as 46 on the NFL chances board.
Lets make sure were on the Perfect track by Taking a Look at the projections, before we break down our options:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we supposed. There is not much profit margin to work with for the spread, which is standard for the NFL regular-season match, if you go for Nate Silvers crew. Jeff Sagarins amounts are more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector distribute, but his latest spread for your Vikes is 2.94, which gets us close to the 2-point margin we are looking for. Be aware that we are very close to the number 3 as well.
Needless to say, if were serious about investing, whenever they are in our favor we need to jump on those opening lines. The Vikings started before the sharps but only in $58 a soda , according to the enlarged consensus reports at the press. Little wager, perimeter.
That line proceed to the total is intriguing. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points per game last year to 22.4, and thebelow is 49-43 (53.3 percent) round the league, so auto-betting that theover to your NFL selections does not hold water right today — unless youre convinced therell be some regression to the mean, perhaps from the kicking game.
Additionally, the matchup on the floor things toward a lower scoring game. The Lions position No. 14 total in DVOA, however only No. 21 on offense in comparison to No. 12 on protection (and second on special teams). Then you have all that running across the Vikings do.
In regards to that total, however we are looking at a window between the projections and the actual odds. Lets follow the sharps, place Minnesota in our picks for a sum, and as always, may the prolate spheroid function together with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) in 5Dimes
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