Jasons 2019 NFL picks 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
What if we told you the Minnesota Vikings were the fourth-best group from the NFL? Hey, do not look at us: Football Outsiders possess Minnesota ranked No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 defense, No. 14 special teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins doesnt hold water. Hes No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three spots better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of figures, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) could have some gambling value as 1-point street faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). But these North teams have been profitable thus far. We might get more value in thebelow now that the sum has proceeded from 44 to as large as 46 on the NFL chances board.
Before we break down our selections, lets make sure we are on the Perfect track by looking at the projections:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –2
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 complete
As we guessed. If you go for Nate Silvers crew, there is profit margin to work with for the spread, which can be normal to get the NFL game. Jeff Sagarins amounts are more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector distribute, but his latest disperse for your Vikes is 2.94, that gets us near the 2-point margin were searching for. Be aware that we are very near the magic number 3.
Naturally, if we are serious about investing, when theyre in our favor we need to jump on these opening lines. The Vikings opened prior to the sharps gobbled up them — but just in $58 a pop , based on the consensus accounts at press time. Small margin.
On-line move on the total is somewhat interesting. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points a game annually to 22.4, and thebelow is currently 49-43 (53.3 percent) throughout the league, so auto-betting that theover to your NFL selections does not hold water right now — unless youre convinced therell be some regression to the mean, perhaps in the kicking game.
Also, the matchup on the ground points toward a lower scoring match. The Lions position No. 14 total in DVOA, however just No. 21 on crime compared to No. 12 on protection (and second on special teams). Then youve got all that running across the Vikings dotheyre fourth in attempts this year.
When it comes to that total we are still looking at a small window between the projections and the odds. Let us follow the sharps, put Minnesota in our picks and as always, may the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) in 5Dimes
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